Orbán's all-in bet on MAGA
Viktor Orbán had busy two weeks behind him. Last Thursday, he opened the “Collection Exhibition of the Museum of Ethnography.”
Before we delve deeper into Hungarian politics and Orbán’s maneuvers, I want to share some advice. If you find yourself in Budapest, I highly recommend visiting the exhibition at the new Museum of Ethnography building. The exhibition is fantastic and showcases the extensive collection housed there. If you are American, you can glimpse your ancestors’ life before buying that ticket for the New World. Everything is described in English, and there is multimedia, too.
Orbán appeared visibly tired. He tried to radiate confidence but ended up mixing up dates and the order of past events. He also announced that 2024 and 2025 will be years to get back on track before the “Great March” can resume in 2026, the next election year.
But what makes Orbán tired?
Tension. But where does that tension come from?
The easy answer would be the roasting session in the European Parliament earlier this week.
Hungary holds the Presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of 2024. This is mainly a ceremonial role. The country holding the post typically collaborates with its predecessor and successor in a "troika" to advance some of its objectives. Like everything else in the EU, this requires many compromises and careful navigation through the EU bureaucracy. Hungary last held the presidency in 2011.
This time is different. Orbán clashed with almost everyone in the EU, and numerous procedures are being pursued against us for breaches of EU law. As I mentioned in previous posts, the usual visits of EU leaders to Hungary and grand conferences on policy matters never took place.
Instead, the EU Parliament (EP) assembled for a debate on Hungary. It was not the first time, but there were a couple of new things.
In previous instances, backbenchers led the assault against Orbán. There are a couple of known Orbán-haters in the EP. But this time, Ursula von der Leyen herself joined the fray and voiced sharp criticism.
This was also the first time when newly elected Péter Magyar could get some form of debate with Orbán.
But even with von der Leyen and Magyar on board, these sessions have never bothered Orbán before. On the contrary, he could spin these as victorious battles against the liberal mafia in the EU. Government propaganda outlets told this story this story again. But something is wrong this time.
Make Europe Great Again
As the presidency holder, the Hungarian government can present its EU agenda to the Parliament. As nothing can go through the vast EU decision-making schemes in six months, these agendas usually focus on long-term policy goals like environmental protection, sustainability, etc. Because of the troika system, they are more like status reports on the EU's long-term policy priorities.
Not this time.
Orbán presented a program to reform the EU, stating that the organization must return to its core values to counter the liberal assault on EU politics. It sounds like a policy paper from a Trumpist think tank, right? Look at the hat.
Orbán goes all in
Orbán made an all-in bet on Donald Trump and made his political decisions accordingly. He regularly vetoes financial help for Ukraine. In a recent instance, he openly stated that Ukraine should wait until after the US presidential election before deciding how to allocate the funds from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.
It is reasonable to expect that the next President will change the "no talking to Putin" policy of the West. It's high time to do that, and everyone is acting accordingly. The Russians are on an all-out offensive, sacrificing thousands of soldiers for territorial gains. The Ukrainian army targets Russian strategic sites almost every day to thwart the offensive. EU countries are making financial commitments, and the military industry is gearing up. In other words, everyone sees the risk of a reckless Donald Trump coming into power in January. Everyone tries to reach a favorable position for the peace talks next year.
But Orbán’s bet seems a bit like a fantasy.
In this fantasy, Hungary will be rewarded for stopping the liberal assault. In the peace Trump will make with Putin, Hungary will be a leading Central European power that…you get the idea.
Even if Trump wins the elections in November, some things will not change. For example, our economy’s desperate situation will certainly stay unchanged. Trump’s victory is more like a symbol of a miracle that will put things in order again.
But the openly hostile relations with leading EU powers will remain. The partial blocking of EU funds to Hungary will continue. The dozens of EU infringement procedures will persist. The deficit and the low growth will endure.
That’s where the tension comes from. But hey, a free signed MAGA hat if we win!
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