Five things Hungarian politics teaches about Trump's tariffs

The Orbán Show has been running for 15 years, while the Trump Show is relatively new. At times, it seems the producers and the protagonist of the Trump Show drew inspiration from the older show. In other words, those who follow the Orbán Show have likely seen some episodes of the Trump Show. The internet is choking with articles about tariffs and the trade war. Rather than contributing another article, here are some impressions from the Orbán Show that make current episodes of the Trump Show feel familiar.

Shock and awe

Everyone in Hungary knows that when Orbán announces a 50% tax on everything, he really wants a 10% tax on something specific. His unlimited power allows him to impose taxes at will, so no matter how outrageous a new tax appears, it remains a possibility. This keeps the opposition off balance because one can never know the true objective. Should we take to the streets because something truly bad is happening, or are they just trying to create confusion because they lack the courage to announce a new minor tax?

György Matolcsy, the recently dismissed president of the National Bank of Hungary. The markets dreaded his statements.

Typically, after about two weeks of confusion, a hint of the real objective emerges. By then, everyone is weary of the tension, making it a relief that it was only a minor tax. Orbán’s supporters commend this tactic as astute. Those acquainted with domestic violence cases notice something familiar in this.

Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump

Trump’s tariffs, Trump’s trade war, Trump’s 4D chess, and Trump’s intentions. Once upon a time, we had a political press with good daily newspapers and journals. Now, the Hungarian political press consists of Orbán Daily News newspapers and "Understanding Orbán” journals. The US press is heading that way at flank speed. Talk about tariffs, trade wars, and the urban legend of 4D chess, without the T-word. Or you will end up like us.

Vladimir Ilych Trump

In " The Hunt for the Red October, " Tom Clancy's debut novel, the protagonist, Captain First Rank Marko Ramius, boosts his career at the naval academy with a paper on the significance of the Soviet Navy. The paper is a model of modern Socialist thought, citing Lenin six different times.

Now read the opening sentence from the paper by Stephen Miran, the newly appointed economic advisor to President Trump: “The desire to reform the global trading system and put American industry on fairer ground vis-à-vis the rest of the world has been a consistent theme for President Trump for decades.”

I hope Mr. Miran also has the president’s portrait on the wall of his office.

Insider lunacy

After the first few instances of outrageous statements made by Hungarian politicians that caused the Hungarian Forint, the national currency, to plunge, Hungarians learned to ask the question: who had short options on the Forint?

After some time, the timing and wording made it clear: these statements exist for a reason. However, the Hungarian GDP is teeny-tiny, and tampering with it affects about 10 million people. Manipulating US T-bonds is a different story. Although the stakes are much higher, every Hungarian still believes it follows the same pattern.

Was signalgate 2 or 3 years ago?

An American friend asked that question. Hello, Dave. Welcome to Hungarian reality. Strange stories began to surface in 2010 when Orbán came to power. In his early months of rule, Orbán fired a consulting committee that oversaw the naming of places of national significance. They pointed out that the correct name for Budapest's international airport is “Liszt Ferenc Nemzetközi Repülőtér, Budapest-Ferihegy” and not “Budapest Liszt Ferenc Nemzetközi Repülőtér” as Orbán preferred.

That scandal lasted about two weeks. By now, scandals like that don’t even make the news feed. When every day is something crazy, only the craziest things make the news.

Orbán knows this and exploits it to his full advantage. If something crazy pops up, the Hungarian newsreader looks at the bottom of the third page or checks an opposition blog, as something awful must have happened if Orbán’s propaganda machine is acting that crazy.

The Hungarian term for this type of diversion is “gumicsont” (rubber chewing bone). Currently, everyone discusses how the Pride event in Budapest will be banned, while almost no one addresses the fact that, according to official data provided by the Hungarian government to the EU, the deficit reached 62% of the planned annual figure by March.

I don’t know if President Trump is using this tactic intentionally or if his erratic statements are genuinely erratic, but please keep an eye on that, dear American friends.