Harris and Magyar: two politicians in the business of saying nothing

The US presidential election campaign is entering its final phase. Judging by the level of political tensions, a casual observer might assume that Hungary's general elections are just six months away, but they are actually scheduled for April 2026, which is still eighteen months away. The behavior of the candidates, particularly Kamala Harris and Péter Magyar, is similar and deserves closer examination.

“Hi, I am Kamala Harris, and I am not Joe Biden or Donald Trump.”

Kamala Harris’s sails are driven by the Democrats’ collective sigh of relief. President Biden’s increasingly erratic performance raised concerns about an easy victory for Trump, based mainly on the “Sleepy Joe” memes. The last-minute candidate swap pushed Harris to the top of the polls. It went so well that historical analysis may question the improvised nature of this strategy.

The candidate swap meant that Vice President Harris did not have to jump the obstacle course of the primaries, file down the sharp edges of her political persona in debates, or navigate conflicting views on crucial issues like abortion, gun control laws, and healthcare. She was spared from making campaign-ending blunders and exposure to smear campaigns from the Biden-focused Trump campaign.

Her campaign strategy builds on a straightforward message: “Hi, I am Kamala Harris, and I am not Joe Biden or Donald Trump.” This approach briefly gave her a narrow lead over Trump; however, he has since slowly crept back, and now the polls in all the battleground states are tied. In response, Harris has engaged in interviews, but those unfortunate enough to watch her interview with Bret Baier on Fox News found it lacking in new information about her political agenda. It’s unsurprising, though, as few expected risky moves just two weeks before the election.

This was not a friendly one

Cards close to the chest

Péter Magyar is preparing for his speech on October 23rd, Hungary's national holiday. His political career began with a speech on March 15th, our other national holiday. Over the last year, he became the challenger of Orbán, and recent polls indicate that his party is almost tied with Orbán’s.

Despite his raging popularity, very little is known about Magyar's political agenda. The intelligentsia has criticized him for this lack of clarity. True enough, we remain uninformed about his plans for the economy, the struggling healthcare and educational systems, and our badly tarnished international reputation.

The question is, why? Those who follow the Harris campaign will find interesting similarities and differences.

Like Harris, Magyar faces a highly charismatic, aggressive, and divisive opponent. However, while Harris can rely on the straightforward “Anything but Trump” campaign message, Magyar's situation is more complex. Trump maintains a strong media presence, especially since Elon Musk supports him on X (formerly Twitter). In contrast, Orbán's media presence is not just strong but omnipresent. He is everywhere, from billboards to nationwide television, local radio stations, and social media influencers.

You can’t win an election against your voters.

Orbán’s omnipresence in media hammered a series of ideas into the mind of the average Hungarian: stale nationalism, chauvinism, 19th-century ideas on family and gender issues, fondness for Vladimir Putin, and conspiracy theories.

Previous attempts to create a strong opposition tried to change these concepts and scolded people (that is, the majority of voters) for believing them. Péter Magyar seems to have heard about the rule that calling your voters stupid is a bad idea.

Péter Magyar faces a distinctly Eastern European challenge here: the intelligentsia. He is under considerable pressure to present a political program and outline his political creed. Opinion leaders urge him to show his true colors, adopt an enlightened political stance, and renounce everything Orbán ever did.

Péter Magyar walks away from the evening talk show, “Straight Talk” the favorite show of middle-aged and elderly intellectuals.

Previous opposition leaders succumbed to this pressure and sought approval from the intelligentsia, particularly the independent media outlets based in Budapest. However, this is a trap.

Don’t try to please vegans in Hamburgerland

Závecz Research, a leading polling institute in Hungary, recently conducted surveys for various clients. In one survey focused on antisemitism, they aimed to gauge the fundamental values and attitudes of Hungarian society. The findings revealed that 68% of Hungarians feel they are underpaid, while 75% express a sense of being disrespected. Additionally, 82% support strong controls on immigration, and 73% believe that the most important lesson to teach children is to respect authority.

According to another Závecz survey, Hungarians are pro-EU and pro-NATO, but the majority opposes sending weapons to Ukraine.

These numbers convey a clear message: despite the Hungarian intelligentsia’s wishes for an enlightened liberal program, it simply isn’t feasible. There is no demand for such an approach, as Péter Magyar must cater to narrow-minded voters seeking a new authority figure. The intelligentsia will continue to ponder this issue, but pursuing their desires would likely result in political suicide for Magyar.

His messages are straightforward: he adopts Orbán’s nationalism, identifies the problems (inflation, healthcare, education), and commits to solving them. However, the specifics remain unclear.

Kamala Harris’ situation is somewhat similar. She was pressured by Democratic opinion leaders, but by now, she should have somehow realized what she was going to do: She must not believe that everybody feels about US politics as East Coast liberal opinion leaders do. It is best not to reveal what she really thinks.

Final lap vs a long campaign

Unlike Kamala Harris, Magyar is not under immediate time pressure. Any mistake made by Harris could jeopardize her campaign, and there isn't enough time to correct it in just two weeks. Understandably, her campaign focuses on mobilizing her core supporters.

In contrast, Péter Magyar has more time to navigate his campaign. Like Harris, he is the embodiment of an idea. In his case, it is the widespread discontent with the state of public affairs, or as a typical Eastern European might put it, discontent with the “System.”

Orbán’s propaganda is desperately trying to find a way to attack Magyar. His ex-partner recently appeared on government media, spilling the tea on him. There was a weird meme campaign about how Magyar’s penis bulge is visible in his slim-fit trousers, and there was some footage showing him allegedly fondling it. Yes, they went that low.

Despite their various attempts at defamation, nothing has worked so far. Magyar is cautious to focus solely on the concerns of the average voter, promising to address their issues effectively. He understands that he will likely be demonized whenever he discusses his policy goals.

There is no question that Kamala Harris will finish her campaign adhering to the form-over-substance strategy. The real question is, will she win? We will see.

The question in Hungary is whether Péter Magyar can run an eighteen-month campaign solely on messianic promises. He actually has a fair chance to pull that off because no one serious, especially Orbán, wants to debate him. Because from the moment that happens, he is the Worthy Opponent to Orbán, which means he is the heir presumptive. We will see.

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