Orbán' sous-vide frog recipe
Why can Viktor Orbán get away with anything in domestic politics? Here is a story that illustrates his method, and his deep understanding of Hungarians. A reform of solar power subsidies was announced last week. The reform will ruin the investments of thousands of Hungarian middle-class households. There are some disconnected rumbles, but Viktor Orbán will come out of this unscathed, as he usually does. How does he do it?
Solar power reform
The EU was always very fond of renewable energy. Even more so since green party stupidity has shut down Germany’s nuclear power plants and someone blew up the Nord Stream gas pipeline that brought cheap gas from Russia. But there are problems. The renewables supplied by the wealthy states of the Northern EU members already wreak havoc on the EU’s power grid. Large scale building of solar power in sunny Southern and Eastern Europe will make things unsustainable.
These states have or had lucrative net metering schemes for people willing to install rooftop solar panels. In Hungary, net metering was done on a yearly basis, essentially turning the power grid into a huge free battery for those with large rooftop panels. The Hungarian middle class went solar-powered wherever they could.
Price volatility and hard-to-handle surges in the power grid triggered action from the EU.
This means that yearly-based net metering in Hungary has to go. It was announced last week at the “Tranzit” festival, a big workshop about politics held every summer, by energy minister Csaba Lantos. Here is where our story about Hungarian democracy begins.
Low quality government
One of the paradoxes of Eastern European politics is that everyone wants a strong, determined and competent leader, but no one expects a politician to be one.
Everyone knows that the government is corrupt, incompetent and only works to rip you off.
This leads to certain government methods. The government here doesn’t motivate people. It makes them think that they can circumvent the law and trick the government. People won’t install solar panels when they are told to. But they will happily do it when they think they can trick the system with that.
No sane person in Hungary expects a long-term, stable, well thought-out legal environment. So when people who spent loads of money on their solar panels start to protest that the phasing out of yearly net metering will ruin their investments…Orbán knows that for most of them it won’t. Most of them knew it was too good to be true and never expected it to last more than 3-4 years. They will just shrug and manage.
Lack of solidarity
And they will think that anyone actually believed Orbán is an idiot and deserve what they got.
Reverse frog cooking
Everyone knows the parable of the gradually cooked frog. But the reverse method can be just as effective. Threaten the frog with boiling water, and then offer very warm water and it will happily accept it. Don’t use this simile as a sous-vide frog recipe.
Here is the detailed recipe:
When Orbán wants to take 15% from you, a low-ranker henchman announces 65% and some nasty bureaucratic idiocy, too.
People get enraged and/or frightened. The mood in the country darkens.
But ye shall not despair! Our Wise Leader steps in and announces that of course this is the people’s country and they will do whatever they can for the people.
Some days later another henchman announces the Plan. The Plan (usually named National (Historic Person) Plan) is to levy 40% on some less popular group of the society (in the classical Russian recipe: the Jews, in Hungary: “those who make extraprofit”) and the rest will pay 25%.
Some days later the stupid new bureaucratic thing is quietly abolished.
Another week passes and an amendment comes out which states that people over 65 and families with 3 children as well as Certified Agrarian Whatnots will only pay 15%.
Profits are promptly redirected to grandma’, and everyone takes (read: buys) the exam to qualify for Certified Agrarian Whatnot. Enraged feminist make a tantrum about the government degradig women again. The government media happily covers the story, a Very Christian Mother of Six Beautiful Children gives and interview about the wonders of a large family.
Things settle in about two months and everybody happily pays 15% and finds a way to further lower it to 10%.
Next year's budget was planned at 10% from the start.
Protest? Never the right time.
When it comes to protest, there are always two groups. The radicals and the opportunists.
Right now in Hungary some solar panel owners are urging everyone to shut down their panels at the same time to show force. Others on the other hand “believe in negotiations”. They wait for the new rules to soften. They can’t agree on the timing and the extent of the planned protest. Time passes. Anger is slowly replaced by bitterness. Protests too weak from the beginning start to dwindle and then they cease.
Orbán gets away with it again.