The Ambassador's speech
The German Ambassador to Hungary, Julia Gross, was expected to make an unremarkable speech at the October 3rd reception. Instead of some spicy remarks, she made a speech that left the audience speechless.
At the regular Day of German Unity reception, Ambassador Julia Gross was expected to deliver the customary remarks about how Hungary was instrumental in the unification of Germany, and how our business and cultural relations are deeply rooted in a strong and healthy friendship. A Hungarian government minister, most likely Gergely Gulyás, the "German Guy" in charge, should have responded in a similar manner.
Well, it didn’t go like that.
I happened to be in the audience and was one of the many people who started taking photos of the screen where the English and Hungarian translations were displayed. Here are some quotes and commentary.
No minister attended the reception because the government was at a two-day retreat in a countryside castle, and they had some urgent issues to discuss. Our national currency, the Forint, hit the 400 HUF/EUR exchange rate. This has only happened once before, but this time, it seems like the rate will stick there. When Orbán took power in 2010, the rate was 270, and in 2009, Orbán said that any prime minister who allows it to go over 300 should immediately resign. They must also consider a series of political issues. The tensions in the Middle East, Balázs Orbán’s blunder, the upcoming memorial day of the 1956 revolution, and the crashed budget are surely on the agenda.
But not attending the German October 3rd reception is a deeply unfriendly gesture, almost hostile. Usually, even two ministers attend to demonstrate good relations.
Ambassador Julia Gross was expected to address the issue but in her customary diplomatic finesse reflecting her three decades in German diplomatic service. Instead of some spicy remarks she decided to make a speech that made the audience speechless.
The speech started with the usual reference to the German-Hungarian friendship and how it made Hungary a trusted friend and a stalwart member of the EU and NATO.
“Love of freedom and courage are the qualities that have shaped the image of Hungary in the eyes of its partners and friends when it joined NATO 25 years ago and the EU 20 years ago. 2004 saw the largest round of enlargement the EU has experienced so far. It has made the European Union more diverse, stronger, better and more European. Hungary also played a special role in this process: it was the accession country that tackled reforms and future-oriented issues most resolutely and with the greatest foresight. During this period in particular, Hungary has earned a great deal of friendship, admiration and trust from its friends and neighbours.”
So far, so good.
But then the Ambassador openly criticized Hungary's recent disruptive role in both the EU and NATO. She specifically mentioned our vetoes against Finnish and Swedish NATO membership, scolding the Hungarian government’s “antics”.
“Recently, this trust has been eroded more and more. I am not merely referring to individual statements made by individual politicians in the last week but to a whole series of incidents, theories, measures, and provocations that seem to have no other purpose than to sow doubt about Hungary’s trustworthiness. The prime minister’s travels at the beginning of the presidency are causing annoyance in the EU, the antics surrounding Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO accession, and risky games on the issue of defense readiness and alliance capability are causing annoyance among NATO partners. I assume that for you –Hungarian voters, regardless of your political persuasion – this increasingly leads to the question: how does this serve my interests, and how does it make my life as a Hungarian better?”
She warned Hungary in only slightly milder terms that our friends are in the EU, not in the East. She cautioned that the trust we have built over decades is dwindling and we may soon run out of it.
Hungary is and remains an important partner and ally for us. We have a strong desire to maintain our friendship and we have a great desire to trust. And I see a room full of people here who can be trusted. But at the moment, Hungary is on a path that is leading it away from its friends. Hungary’s real friends are in Europe, and all the talk of connectivity and neutrality does not change that.
She urged the people in the room to engage with the government and communicate this warning to them.
“There is no government representative here today, at least not here with me on the stage, so I address a proposal directly to all of you:
If you want us to move closer together again, if you want Hungary to be able to use its capital of respect and trust for the benefit of Hungarians; if you want the German-Hungarian friendship to become visible again, please say it in a way that will be heard. Say it to friends, family, work colleagues, mayors, members of parliament, government representatives. If you were now thinking secretly: but there is no one to whom I would like to say this or can say this in Hungary – then really all of us would have a problem. But that is not how I see either you or Hungary, so let us give it a try.”
Predictably enough, Hungarian foreign minister Péter Szijjártó went ape and made sputtering comments about the speech. He also summoned the Ambassadors of Germany and France (who also signed a letter to the government criticizing Balázs Orbán's Russophile statements).
So what’s behind this story?
This isn't the first time an ambassador has made strong comments about Hungarian politics. Previously, the "bad cop" was David Pressman, the US ambassador. Last year, he delivered a similar speech at the annual Amcham patrons' dinner, and his Twitter account has been a source of excitement in Hungarian politics.
So far, German diplomacy has been quite different.
Each major European power has special relations with certain parts of the world, usually their former colonies. However, Germany had very few colonies for a short duration. Their special area of influence is Eastern Europe. Throughout German political history, several terms have been used to describe this interest, and not all of them raise good memories. "Drang nach Osten," "Lebensraum," and "Ostpolitik" each refer to German interest in Eastern Europe in different eras and in very different ways.
Germany's interest in Hungary still exists, which creates some complexity for German diplomacy in the country. The German business and industrial sector has a significant influence, controlling 90% of the retail sector. Additionally, Audi and Mercedes' assembly plants are the primary employers in their respective regions. Graduates from nearly every technical school in Hungary ultimately find employment with German companies.
The Holy Trinity of German Diplomacy
Hence, formal diplomacy is just one way for the two countries to communicate. The Wirtschaftsklub and the Handelskammer are important forums for discussing business and politics. During the Merkel era, when SPD politicians held the position of the German Foreign Minister, it was widely known that the actual communication channel between the two governments ran through the Budapest office of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (the CDU party’s official foundation) and the aforementioned business forums. Also Orbán had influential friends in the CSU party of Bavaria.
In previous years, the October 3rd receptions highlighted this delicate balance. The government representative (the “German guy”), along with his entourage and German business leaders, attended the event. After the speeches, the government representative circulated the room, shaking hands with the business leaders and the Ambassador. Everyone could see, that the connection between the two countries are more than bilateral.
With the arrival of the new SPD-led German government and a Grüne foreign minister, things have changed. Business relations are still important, but they can no longer override the German government’s foreign policy.
Business troubles
The Hungarian government is running amok. The freezing of EU funds for Hungary is hitting the bottom line of every Hungarian company, including the German subsidiaries in the country. The Hungarian government is attempting to uphold good relations with the German business elite, but there are concerns.
There are smaller German companies here, not just the industrial and retail giants. These smaller companies (we are talking about hundreds of employees per company) navigate the same choppy waters as any other Hungarian company. They struggle with poor administration, sudden changes in legislation, and rapidly deteriorating infrastructure. It has been known that these concerns were communicated to the government but to no avail.
Communication through closed doors
Ambassador Gross inherited a very delicate situation from her predecessors. Neither the SPD nor the Green party is fond of Orbán. Both parties vowed to put an end to the endless patience for Orbán’s actions. However, due to the previous years' inactivity of the German embassy and the turbulent human resources situation at the Hungarian foreign ministry, the informal channels for discreetly sending messages are not available.
The tone of the Hungarian diplomacy became outright aggressive. Foreign Minister Szijjártó reacts to every criticism with saber rattling, name-calling, fist-waving, and finger-making aggression.
So, one can imagine the ambassador's dilemma. I'm sure that she is feeling pressure from the AA Zentrale to get the message through. She can't do it at a dinner or at an informal meeting because there is no one to talk to. She also can't send a message through the business forums because they have run out of ideas.
So when the Hungarian government chose not to celebrate the national holiday of its most important friend and ally as it had always done, it created an opportunity for the ambassador. Surely, she wouldn’t have used such harsh words with a minister present. But this is not even the first rude gesture towards Germany. A couple of months ago, Annalena Baerbock's visit to Budapest was abruptly canceled because Péter Szijjártó chose to travel to China. A German reprisal was long overdue.
What does this mean for Hungary
The Hungarian government has been diplomatically quarantined for several years. I work near the Parliament, so I can see when foreign dignitaries are received. The most recent ones were the President of Congo and the Grand Master of the Sovereign Military Order of Malta. Despite Hungary holding the EU presidency in 2024, no EU leaders or leaders of EU countries visit Hungary. Only necessary work-related visits take place but without the usual diplomatic formalities.
Germany was the last major EU power to maintain at least the facade of normal diplomatic relations.
With this speech, it’s over. Now, we officially have beef with every major EU power, NATO, and the USA. We also have new friends: China, which tries to use us as an entrance to EU markets and loan-sharking us, and a bunch of Whateveristans Szijjártó visits five times a year. And Putin.
No analyst can predict the outcome of this situation. This type of foreign policy seriously limits the actions that our allies can take. However, as Orbán is well aware, overthrowing the government of an EU and NATO member country is not an option.
Therefore, the embassies in Budapest can engage in dialogue with the opposition. Provided they are astute enough to recognize this opportunity and attend events like the reception on October 3rd. Unfortunately, most of them did not attend this time.
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Kíváló és egyben nagyon lehangoló írás.
Ebből a gödörből ez a kurmány soha többé nem ássa ki magát, láthatóan nem is célja.
A kérdés csak az, hogy valóban ki karják-e vezetni az országot az EU-ból.