The people have spoken, their parties did not

How the Hungarian opposition is about to blow another chance to hurt Orbán's rule

Orbán's government is still recovering from the "pedophile scandal" controversy. Although some lower-ranking officials may still make mistakes, the usual communication tactics seem effective overall. The leader has returned to the helm, and the crew is following orders. The opposition should recognize this and adjust their strategies accordingly.

A massive demonstration took place at Heroes Square in Budapest on Friday, February 9th. Although many anticipated a large turnout, no one expected over 150,000 attendees. The demonstration was organized by popular YouTubers and influencers with a significant following among people under 30.

The Friday protest in Hungary has been the largest since 1990. Unlike other protests, the speakers did not focus on hating Orbán but talked about the harsh reality of Hungarian childcare and foster homes. They addressed the relevant issues and launched a fundraising campaign aimed at solving a specific problem. The goal of the campaign was to raise HUF 25 million (USD 80,000) in order to buy an apartment for a homeless survivor of systematic child abuse in foster homes. The campaign ended on Sunday evening and was a huge success, raising almost ten times the target amount.

Many older Hungarians, including myself at, 43 years old, had mixed feelings as they left the protest. On the other hand, the younger generation felt that the protest was a success. They identified a problem, protested against it, and then found a solution. This was a great example of an effective political action. However, the only issue was that this was not done by Hungarian politicians. 

Márton Gulyás, the founder of the Partizán YouTube channel (the largest politics channel in Hungary) and the MC of the evening, created a video with a message for opposition politicians. He stated that they have done their part, and now it's time for the politicians to take over. The crowd's desires and reactions were spoken out loud and clear, but it's not the job of YouTubers, influencers, or civilians to translate that message into political action. The responsibility lies with the politicians.

Pro-level political action…by amateurs

The organizers have created an Instagram account called "Bántottak" (meaning "They Hurt Me" in English) and a webpage called "Három Kérdés" (meaning "Three Questions" in English) to keep the crowd and its focus together. The three questions are straightforward and aimed at the government: When will the government provide a healthy upbringing, quality education, and adequate protection against abuse for children in foster care?

These issues are highly relatable to almost every Hungarian parent. Even elite schools are not immune to bullying and child abuse scandals. Professional sports and theatre often have a culture of violence and sexual humiliation. The quality of education is also declining because Hungarian teachers are among the worst-paid in the EU. This leads many parents to emigrate to find better schools for their children.

As mentioned in my previous update, the Hungarian Reformed Church has also become involved in the scandal. Initially, they protected bishop Zoltán Balog, a mentor and confidant of the now-resigned president, Katalin Novák. However, Balog's statements only added to the outrage, and he was forced to step down as the president of the Synod of the Church. Influential bishops advised him to step back since Balog's actions and communication were in sharp contrast with the puritanical integrity, a core part of the identity of the Reformed Church.

Will Orbán’s usual game plan work? Probably yes.

Orbán has lost control of the situation because it was outside the usual framework of his political communication. Covering up child abuse stirred outrage on both sides. He couldn’t channel hatred toward an “enemy,” but it was clear that he wanted to return to this method sooner or later. 

Orbán is trying to regain control by playing for time. He is using various events such as the Swedish NATO accession, the second anniversary of the war against Ukraine, and the selection of the new president (Tamás Sulyok, the current president of the Constitutional Court, who is a loyal accomplice) to divert attention from the issue at hand.

The next step in the process is to create a new villain. The term "pedophile" is often used to represent child abuse, thus creating a false “enemy” image. Shortly, new "anti-pedophile" laws may be introduced. However, these laws are likely to be symbolic and ineffective amendments. Instead of having any practical impact, they will only further complicate the already cluttered Hungarian legal system.

The purpose of this move is to divert attention from systematic flaws and widespread child abuse. The state propaganda wants to paint a picture in which pedophiles infiltrated the system. Orbán will initiate a purge. As a welcome side effect, they will purposely confuse these alleged pedophiles with the LGBTQ community. 

When the opposition criticizes the “strong, fast and effective” legislation, Orbán’s propaganda will return to its comfort zone, and they will resume standard operations.

NGO’s warn the opposition but to no avail 

NGO’s already detected this threat. The Hintalovon Alapítvány (On a Rocking Horse Foundation, a leading Hungarian anti-child abuse organization) published a 90-minute long e-learning material that helps to understand different forms of child abuse and how they are related or not related to certain medical or mental conditions. 

So far, the opposition plays in Orbán’s hand. They failed to devise an action plan, a series of events, a program, or any other political product based on the most significant political protest since the 1956 revolution. 

Their demonstration this Sunday in front of the Parliament building attracted only a few hundred people, and their messages were unrelated to the large protest's political legacy. 

They hope that the scandal will keep itself going. It won’t, and the opposition is now in even deeper trouble than before the scandal. The current situation points to a sweep in the June elections for Orbán.